Two weeks ago, a U.S. intelligence official — commenting on the recent Election Security Update issued by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) — suggested that Russia prefers former President Trump to win the presidency in November.
As a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer who specializes in Russia and Putin, I totally disagree. Like many other pronouncements made by spy agencies, this one is also dead wrong. But now that Biden is out of the race, whom would Vladimir Putin favor, Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris?
Kamala, of course. Here’s why.
Putin is almost certainly terrified of another Trump presidency, but Kamala not so much. The Russians have assessed her to be vapid, unintelligent and incompetent, and can be unbalanced and manipulated in Moscow’s view.
The Russian media, which is almost exclusively under state control, speculated on Monday whether Harris’s ‘cackling and giggling,’ ‘nervous, out-of-place clapping,’ ‘exaggerated gesticulation,’ nonsensical statements like ‘the passage of time,’ and ‘strange’ facial expressions are a result of a psychiatric disorder or being constantly ‘inebriated.’
Russian analysts expect Harris to continue Biden’s policies seeking to transform America from a society that’s based on meritocracy and competence to the one that is hyper-focused on forced equality and government regulation, typical of a socialist system. Since socialism destroyed the USSR, Moscow believes that someone like Harris leading America on the path of destruction is a good thing for Russia, which views the U.S. as its top security threat.
Harris, like Biden, who called Putin all sorts of derogatory names such aswar criminal’killeramurderous dictator’ and a ‘pure thug’ — a sign that Putin’s actions got under his skin – also can be rattled by the former KGB operative, the Russians believe. Harris previously slammed Putin, accusing him of brutality and being responsible for the death of Alexei Navalny, his political opponent.
To the contrary, a talented statesman and astute businessman, former President Trump, always acted respectfully to Putin, realizing the Russian isn’t afraid of words. Instead, Trump pursued the most formidable anti-Russia policy since former President Reagan, having taken actions to counter Moscow’s anti-U.S. strategy.
Trump founded in December 2019 America’s first entirely new armed service since 1947, the U.S. Space Force. This was 18 years after Putin established Russia’s space force, whose mission is to attack U.S. satellites, on which our military depends for every aspect of war fighting — missile warning, navigation, reconnaissance, targeting, command-and-control and precision strike efforts.
The key mission of the U.S. Space Force is to safeguard our spacecraft and target enemies’ space assets with offensive operations.
In September 2018, Trump authorized offensive cyber operations against adversaries, enabling the U.S. military to ramp-up cyber operations targeting Russia’s power grid. This was direct retaliation against Russia, which had been hacking American networks for more than two decades and had compromised every major federal agency, including the electrical grid and nuclear facilities.
In 2018, as part of the modernization of the U.S.’ nuclear arsenal, Trump ordered the development of a low-yield, nuclear-armed, sea-launched cruise missile. This was a direct counter to Putin’s ‘escalate-to-de-escalate’ atomic strategy, which seeks to detonate a low-yield tactical nuclear warhead in the theater of combat operations — such as in Ukraine — to deter the U.S. from intervening.
The Biden-Harris administration canceled Trump’s program. Now, Washington goes into a frenzy every time Putin issues a nuclear threat.
Putin is acutely aware that Trump wouldn’t hesitate to spill Russian blood to protect U.S. forces. In 2018, a small group of U.S. forces stationed in Syria were attacked by hundreds of Bashar al-Assad loyalists, which included Russian members of the Wagner group. Some 300, including Wagnerites, were killed as a small force of some 30-40 U.S. special forces heroically fought off the attack with the help of local allies.
There was no direct retaliation by Putin.
Similarly, Trump didn’t blink before directing U.S. forces to eliminate Iran’s Qassem Soleimani, the murderous commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who was killed on Jan. 3, 2020, outside Baghdad International Airport. For this, the Ayatollahs placed Trump on the target list for assassination, on which he remains today.
Putin knows that Trump isn’t easily fooled.
In 2017, the then-president signed into law the U.S. government’s ban on Kaspersky Lab, a Moscow-based anti-virus software firm owned by Eugene Kaspersky, a former KGB intelligence officer-turned-cybersecurity expert.
This was a Russian cyber espionage platform that U.S. federal agencies — who famously award contracts to the lowest bidder — voluntarily installed on civilian and military networks, having paid the Russian ‘businessman’ for ‘protection’ against malware. It takes a street-smart New York real estate mogul to understand how shysters like Putin operate.
Contrast this with Team Biden-Harris, who begged Iran to halt its nuclear program — having gifted the ayatollahs billions which they almost certainly re-directed toward anti-U.S. campaigns.
When it comes to Ukraine, Trump has claimed that if elected president, he would settle the Ukraine war ‘in 24 hours,’ sparking concerns that he would give Putin everything he wants. The Russians are in a strong bargaining position, having prepared its military and economy for a multi-year war, while the U.S. and Europe are not postured to support Ukraine in a protracted conflict against Russia, having no industrial capacity to replenish the rapidly depleting weapons arsenal.
Putin knows this, and he will almost certainly drive a hard bargain on Ukraine, no matter who sits on the other side of the negotiating table. This being said, if there is a U.S. politician who could possibly intimidate and outsmart the Russian dictator, Trump has the best chance to do so.
Putin is not afraid of hysterical declarations made about him. What he fears is a truly strong NATO, whose military might was hollowed out during the Obama administration. Unlike Biden, who has made America carry the burden of funding Ukraine – the policy that Harris will almost certainly continue – Trump will likely compel every NATO member to cough up some euros to pay for their security. Ask an ordinary American if Germany, the richest country in Europe but who fails to pitch in 2% of its GDP toward NATO, deserves to be protected by U.S. taxpayers.
When it comes to gangsters like Putin, the choice between Teflon Don and cackling Kamala is an easy one.