JERUSALEM – Israel and the Iranian regime-backed terrorist organization Hezbollah are expected to go head-to-head in what the Jewish state’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz termed ‘an all-out war.’
The tipping point for Israel’s decision to fight back, with what U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon said ‘will be swift, harsh and painful,’ was Hezbollah’s Saturday rocket attack on a soccer field that was packed with children, resulting in the mass murder of 12 children in the Israeli Druze town of Majdal Shams.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Tuesday that its air force ‘struck approximately 10 Hezbollah terror targets in seven different areas in southern Lebanon. In addition, in aerial and ground strikes, the IDF eliminated a Hezbollah terrorist in the area of Bayt Lif, and struck a Hezbollah weapons storage facility, terror infrastructure sites, military structures, and a launcher in southern Lebanon.’ This as the IDF reported 10 projectiles crossed into Israeli territory earlier today. One civilian died as a result of the barrage.
It is thought that the current IDF strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon are a curtain raiser for a larger Israeli assault against its enemy in the north.
The Lebanese-based terrorist movement Hezbollah is the chief strategic partner of the Islamic Republic of Iran, whose ruling mullahs call for the extermination of Israel and frequently chant ‘Death to Israel’ and ‘Death to America.’
Appearing on ‘The Story with Martha MacCallum,’ former U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo pinned the blame for Hezbollah’s jingoism targeting Israel on Iran’s regime. ‘This is all Iran, this is coordinated by the Iranians, it is approved by Iranians and this is funded by the Iranians…The outcome will be determined by will the world stand-up and demand that Iran be sanctioned and that we deny them the wealth they need to carry their terror campaign.’
Israel is immersed in a multi-front war against proxies from the Islamic Republic of Iran — ranging from Hamas in the Gaza Strip, to the Houthis in Yemen, to Syria, to Hezbollah in the north and to Iraqi militias beholden to Tehran. Iran’s clerical regime has supplied missiles and rockets to Hezbollah for its over 150,000 aerial warfare arsenal. Many of the weapons that Tehran furnished to Hezbollah are precision guided missiles.
Fox News Digital contacted leading Israeli and American experts on the volatile Middle East for comments on whether the Hezbollah-Israel conflict could spark a World War 3.
Brigadier General (Res) Amir Avivi, a former deputy commander of the IDF Gaza Division, said, ‘The question of whether there will be a third World War depends on American deterrence. Israel might find itself in full-scale war with Lebanon. It might happen. Maybe not immediately, but in the coming months. And the way the U.S. will deter the Yemenis, the Iranians, Turkey, and so on, will determine whether we are on the way to a third world war or a military attack of Israel focused on Lebanon without the whole Middle East going into this war. I think the problem is the U.S. is very focused on the elections… while on the ground there is a multi-front war.’
Avivi, who is the founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, said ‘The big question is what will be the U.S. policy’ when Israel launches a full-scale attack on Lebanon.
He continued ‘And whether we will see Biden sending the message again ’Don’t’ and getting serious and sending forces to the Middle East.’
Matthew Levitt, the director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute, said ‘I think Israel and Hezbollah both, for their own reasons, still want to escalate away from all out war. That said, the potential for miscalculation is crazy high and in the event of an all-out war Iranian proxies would surely try to play a role.’
Levitt, who is widely considered the leading U.S. expert on Hezbollah, said if this leads to Lebanese Hezbollah redeploying north, it could ultimately help avoid war.
He explained that the redeployment of Hezbollah would mean an ‘Implementation of something along the lines of [United Nations Security Council Resolution] 1701 to address not only the rocket threat but the threat of an Oct. 7-style attack on the northern border.’
Resolution 1701 was passed to end the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel and has not been honored by Hezbollah, the de facto ruler over Lebanon. The resolution calls for Hezbollah to be disarmed and for Hezbollah to retreat from the Israel-Lebanon border area.
Fox News reported in June that the U.N.’s failure to enforce 1701 has emboldened the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hezbollah.
Levitt said ‘Israeli citizens up north fear Lebanese Hezbollah forces storming across the border and won’t return home without that addressed. If it’s not addressed, the Majdal Shams attack could give credence to those in Israel calling for addressing the Lebanon Hezbollah challenge now.’
Former IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus said, ‘The Islamic Republic of Iran stands to benefit from Israel continuing to focus its military capabilities on Iran’s proxies instead of on the Iranian revolutionary guard, and will likely maintain its strategy of providing weapons to terror organizations around Israel to keep it engaged and in a perpetual state of fighting. Until Israel changes its strategy against Iran, the likelihood of decades of continued fighting and instability in the Middle East are high.’
Conricus, a senior fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, added, ‘Since the main theater of operations for the Israeli forces remains the Gaza Strip, for the time being it appears as if Israel does not seek to engage Hezbollah in an all-out war. Israel will likely retaliate against Hezbollah at a level just below the assessed threshold of war, yet likely in such a way that will be public and hard for the Lebanese terror organization to hide.’
He continued that ‘Israel has been waging a successful surgical campaign directed at senior enemy combatants, with extremely limited collateral damage in Lebanon, while Hezbollah has already killed 24 Israeli civilians along with 22 Israeli soldiers since October 8. The human toll in Israel greatly exceeds the tolerance of the Israeli population, and Hezbollah’s aggression will therefore have to be met with significant actions by Israel.’
Hezbollah rocket, drone and missile attacks into northern Israel have forced the displacement of 80,000 Israelis since October.
Iranian-born Israeli Beni Sabti, an expert on Iran from the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said ‘This escalation won’t become a bigger war because Israel is still also busy in the Gaza front and they have to stick with the goal of destroying, or weakening Hamas as much as it can be.’ He said there is also a lot of pressure from France and the U.S. not to bomb Beirut, the capital of Lebanon.
Israel’s medical preparation for a third war with Hezbollah (the first two were in 1982 and 2006) is unfolding.
Said Eli Bin, director general of Magen David Adom, told Fox News Digital that ‘Magen David Adom, as Israel’s National Emergency Service provider, is ready for anything, we hope for the best, but prepared for the worst.
‘Magen David Adom has prepared our staff and 30,000 volunteers for all possible scenarios, including the total loss of power, telephone and radio communications.’ He added that, ‘While today we can get medical assistance to anyone within minutes using our revolutionary AI-powered dispatch, we are also ready to work manually transmitting messages in writing via messengers on motorcycles.’
Eli Bin added that, ‘The Magen David Adom Marcus National Blood Services Center is protected from missile and chemical warfare, securing the countries blood supplies deep underground. In the event of an all-out war, we will continue to distribute blood to hospitals across the country and to the IDF using everything at our disposal, including armored ambulances, off-road vehicles and motorcycles and even helicopters.’
Turkey added to the destabilization of the Middle East this week. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan threatened to invade Israel, sending shock waves throughout the Jewish state. Erdoğan is a zealous supporter of the U.S. and EU-designated terrorist movement, Hamas, that invaded Israel on October 7. Hamas slaughtered nearly 1,200 people, including over 30 Americans.
Conricus said ‘As reckless and aggressive as the comments of the Turkish leader may be, since he is the head of state of a NATO member country, the chances of Türkiye escalating its rhetoric or actions against Israel remain slim. However, terrorist organizations in the region will surely draw moral and spiritual support from his belligerent threats against Israel.’