Voters in 10 U.S. states will decide on major ballot initiatives this year that either expand or restrict abortion access for women, a highly polarizing issue but one that some advocacy groups do not believe will affect turnout quite as much as some had expected.
It’s unclear to what extent this could impact Vice President Harris, who has focused heavily on abortion access and reproductive rights in her bid for the presidency.
In the final race to Election Day, some doubt the issue has lasting power to turn out voters to the same degree it did during the 2022 midterm elections, held just months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
‘I think Democrats are dramatically overestimating the power of abortion,’ Shawn Carney, president of the pro-life nonprofit group ’40 Days for Life,’ told Fox News in an interview.
The nonprofit has a grassroots presence in all 50 states and has canvassed heavily in the 10 states that will vote directly on abortion-related measures this year: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Nevada and South Dakota.
The majority of these ballot measures seek to amend efforts passed in Republican-led states, whose leaders moved to restrict abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court’s June 2022 decision on Roe.
Notable policies will be on the books in Missouri, where voters will have the option to reverse the state’s near-total ban, and Arizona, where voters can amend the state constitution to allow abortions through the 24-week mark.
The most populous state deciding on abortion measures is Florida, home to more than 13 million registered voters.
Voters there will decide whether to lift an existing law that bans abortions after six weeks and instead extend it to the point of fetal viability between 23 and 24 weeks.
‘I think we have the best chance to win in Florida,’ Carney said, citing the popularity in the state of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican and staunch advocate of pro-life issues.
‘We have a great presence in Florida. We have great ‘40 Days’ campaigns throughout that great state.’
Harris and other Democrats have worked to highlight the new risks to abortion access women face. But it’s not clear what impact this will have on turnout in a presidential election dominated by economic issues and immigration.
Former first lady Michelle Obama dedicated most of her stump speech at a Harris rally last week in Kalamazoo, Mich., to outlining the many ways women could see their reproductive rights diminished further.
‘Your niece could be the one miscarrying in her bathtub after the hospital turned her away,’ Obama told the audience. ‘Your daughter could be the one terrified to call the doctor if she’s bleeding during an unexpected pregnancy.’
Importantly, voters in states where abortion is on the ballot will vote on it independently, meaning it is ‘decoupled’ from their presidential vote and votes for down-ballot leaders. This means that some staunch pro-choice supporters could theoretically vote for Trump and Republicans in their states while also voting to support pro-life procedures.
This ‘decoupling’ effort would indeed reflect public opinion that has shifted to support abortion. A Fox News poll conducted this year found that a record-high number of voters now say they support legalizing abortion in some form, including two-thirds who said they supported a nationwide law that would guarantee abortion access for women.
Fifty-nine percent said they believe abortion should be legal in ‘all or most cases,’ up from the previous high of 57% in September 2022.
But how much the issue of abortion will drive voter turnout this year – for those who are either for or against the new ballot measure – is unclear.
National polls have seen abortion ranked consistently by voters as the third-most important issue in the 2024 election cycle, behind immigration and far behind the economy.
Just 15% of voters ranked abortion as their No. 1 priority in 2024, according to a recent Fox News poll, compared to immigration, which 17% of voters said they viewed as the No. 1 issue, and the economy, which a strong 40% of voters ranked as their top priority.