President-elect Trump will take office just as Iran has the potential to become the world’s 10th nuclear-armed state, and it’s unclear if either side knows how it will approach the other.
Judging by Trump’s last time in office, it would suggest he would come out the gate with a combative tone — having instituted a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign to ‘bankrupt’ the regime. His secretary of state pick, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has been an unyielding Iran hawk in the Senate.
After the regime fired 200 missiles toward Tel Aviv last month, Rubio said: ‘Only threatening the survival of the regime through maximum pressure and direct and disproportionate measures has a chance to influence and alter their criminal activities.’
That could reinstate — and eliminate — any waivers for oil sanctions. It could mean threatening not to conduct business with countries that buy Iranian fuel products.
Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., Trump’s pick for national security adviser, is of a similar mind.
Last month, when the Biden administration urged Israel to keep its counterstrikes ‘proportional,’ Waltz slammed President Biden for pressuring Israel ‘once again to do less than it should.’
He suggested Israel strike oil facilities on Kharg Island and Iran’s nuclear plants in Natanz, a move the Biden team feared Iran would deem escalatory.
Last month, Trump appeared to rule out the U.S. getting involved in any effort to take out Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and his government. ‘We can’t get totally involved in all that. We can’t run ourselves, let’s face it,’ he said.
‘I would like to see Iran be very successful. The only thing is, they can’t have a nuclear weapon.’
Trump has said he does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons, but has not laid out how he would stop it from doing so.
‘I’m not looking to be bad to Iran, we’re going to be friendly, I hope, with Iran, maybe, but maybe not. But we’re going to be friendly, I hope, we’re going to be friendly, but they can’t have a nuclear weapon,’ he said at a New Jersey press conference in August.
Last month, Trump suggested Israel strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Following the Iranian missile attacks, he suggested Israel should ‘hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later.’
On Thursday, Iran said it was activating ‘advanced’ centrifuges after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors censured it for failing to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog. Without cooperation, the world is in the dark about how quickly Iran is advancing its technological capabilities to use its uranium fuel for a bomb.
‘We will significantly increase enrichment capacity,’ Behrouz Kamalvandi, Iran’s atomic energy organization spokesman, said after the censure.
What’s standing between Iran and a fully formed nuclear weapon is both a political and a technological question.
While the nation has enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, the process of turning that into a warhead could take anywhere from six to 12 months, according to Nicole Grajewski, nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
‘That’s when Iran would be most vulnerable to attack,’ she said. ‘Iran could probably make a dirty bomb from its current stockpile.’
Over the years, Iran’s nuclear progress has been set back by international sanctions, COVID-19, high-profile assassinations of its nuclear scientists and attacks and sabotage on its nuclear facilities led by Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad.
And announcing they have a nuclear weapon could threaten Iran’s longtime goal of regional hegemony.
‘Iran is less isolated than it was four years ago, but it’s still pretty isolated. Announcing they are nuclear would trigger an arms race in the Middle East,’ predicted Simone Leeden, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East.
‘Saudi Arabia and the UAE would decide they will pursue nuclear weapons the minute Iran declares it has its own. Another action they could and would take is deepening ties with Israel.’
Iran also understands that producing a nuclear bomb would likely evoke a military response from Israel and the U.S. under Trump.
After years of trying to assassinate Trump, the Iranians don’t seem to have figured out whether to approach the U.S. relationship under Trump with a combative or diplomatic tone. Just last month, they told President Biden they would not make any efforts to kill the president-elect going forward.
‘I think that there’s been a lot of mixed signaling from the kind of Trump transition team is, you know, you see Brian Hook being appointed, who was behind this maximum pressure and sanctions,’ said Grajewski. But then, on the other hand, Trump envoy Elon Musk reportedly met with Iranian officials to discuss how the two nations could dial back tensions.
‘I think that he is being opaque on purpose,’ said Leeden. ‘I don’t think he wants to show his cards as a negotiator.’
‘In all likelihood, maximum pressure is going to be restored,’ said Behnam Taleblu, Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. ‘U.S. partners are asking now, to what end? Is it towards regime collapse? Is it towards a deal? What if the Iranians don’t negotiate in good faith?’
Former Israeli officials have suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might be emboldened to strike Iranian nuclear facilities with the go-ahead from the Trump administration. But a lot of Iran’s centrifuge and enrichment facilities are deep underground, complicating a bombing campaign against them.
To get to them, Israel would need the U.S.’ Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP), or ‘bunkbuster bombs.’
‘It would require U.S. involvement — either the direct transfer of this, which is currently not really discussed — that would be pretty escalatory — or Israel getting the United States to also conduct this mission,’ said Grajewski.
The Trump team will also place a high priority on bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, solidifying the Sunni Muslim alliance against Iran. But the Saudis have insisted the U.S. and Israel must recognize a Palestinian state for such a deal to get done.
‘The incoming administration wants to quiet down this kinetic energy in the Middle East quickly, because we have bigger fish to fry as a country,’ said Leeden.
The U.S. has long looked to pivot its military focus away from the Middle East and toward the Indo-Pacific. The outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas after Oct. 7 tore that focus back to the Arab world.