Nio stock price forecast as a rare bearish chart pattern emerges

Nio stock price remains in a deep bear market this year after falling by ~40% from its highest point this year. It has slumped to $4.86, erasing billions of dollars in value. A closer look shows that it is about to form a risky chart pattern, pointing to further downside.

Nio stock price forecast as risky patterns form

The daily chart reveals that the Nio share price has slumped from a high of $8 in October to the current $4.86. It is about to form a death cross pattern as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) has narrowed.

Nio has remained below the Supertrend indicator, a sign that bears remain in control today. Additionally, it continues to form a bearish flag pattern, a common continuation sign. This pattern is made up of a vertical line and a horizontal channel. 

Nio shares have moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, a sign that bears have prevailed today. It also formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis.

Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling in the near term, with the next key level to watch being the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $4, which is about 16% below the current level.

On the flip side, a move above the resistance at $5.50, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, will invalidate the bearish outlook.

Nio’s business is doing well but challenges remain 

Nio stock price has crashed in the past few months, despite that company’s business continuing its growth trajectory. The most recent results showed that the company delivered 48,135 vehicles in December, up by 54.6% from the same period in 2024.

Nio delivered 124,807 vehicles in the fourth quarter, up by 71.7% from a year earlier, bringing the total deliveries in 2025 to 326,028. It has also delivered 997,592 vehicles since its inception.

Nio’s deliveries have jumped as the company has launched new brands. For example, ONVO, a recently launched brand, had over 7,000 deliveries in December compared to Nio’s premium brand, which delivered 9,154 vehicles. ES8 has now had over 40,000 deliveries since its launch.

Nio’s numbers were notable as other companies, especially Tesla, reported a big drop in sales in December last year  

Now, there are concerns that the company’s growth will slow in the coming months as some Chinese provinces have started slowing down their incentives for EV buyers. 

The other main concern for Nio is that its business has always struggled to turn a profit and has continued to dilute its shareholders. 

The most recent results showed that Nio made over $3 billion in revenue in the third quarter, a 16.7% increase from the same period a year earlier. However, despite this revenue and margin growth, the company still made a big loss of over $494 million. 

Nio also continued to raise capital, a move that has incraesed its outstanding shares to over 2.098 billion from 1.36 billion in 2021. The most recent fundraising happened in Septemnber when it raised $1.16 billion by selling its shares. 

Nio is not followed widely by Wall Street analysts. However, analysts following the company have a mixed outlook. Barclays sees the stock falling to $4, while Citigroup expects it to rise to $6.90. 

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